The number of breast cancer cases in American women is expected to jump 50% by 2030, according to a study by researchers from the National Cancer Institute (NCI).

The increase is driven mostly by a marked increase in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive tumors and in the number of cases in women older than 70 years.

The NCI team used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program, population projections from the US Census Bureau, and mathematical models to forecast the number of breast cancer cases in the United States from 2011 to 2030. Such forecasts “could help the oncology community develop a proactive roadmap to optimize prevention and treatment strategies,” they note in a meeting abstract.

In contrast, the researchers forecast that the proportion of ER-negative cancers, both invasive and in situ, will drop from 17% of all tumors in 2011 to 9% in 2030.

This research was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health. Dr Rosenberg has disclosed no relevant financial relationships.

American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) 2015 Annual Meeting: Abstract 1850. Presented April 20, 2015.